Policy-makers should define policy outcomes and take a long term view, for at least five years into the future, of the likely effect and impact of the policy.
A forward looking approach prepares a statement of intended outcomes at an early stage. Takes into account the Government's long-term strategy.
Simplification plan - Department of Health, 2006 - sets out how the Department proposes to deliver its key priorities through better regulation over the next four years of the Plan. It is based on extensive consultation with the frontline and industry. The programme covers work to reduce regulatory burdens on NHS and social care frontline services and our private and voluntary sector partners.
The future of local government: Developing a 10 year vision - on 27 July 2004, the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) opened a debate on what local government should look like in ten years. Key themes are local leadership, citizen engagement and participation, service delivery and the performance framework, and the relationship between central, regional and local government.
At the same time, ODPM also published
'Local Area Agreements: a prospectus'
plus 4 research reports:
All the above documents are available at localvision the ODPM website.
Future of Transport - White Paper published on 20 July 2004, Department for Transport (DfT). Examines the factors that will shape travel and transport over the next thirty years. It sets out how the Government will respond to the increasing demand for travel, maximising the benefits of transport while minimising the negative impact on people and the environment.
Reducing Re-Offending: National Action Plan - Home Office action plan, published on 19 July 2004, to reduce re-offending which identifies strategic direction and joined up working between agencies as the key to reducing re-offending.
2004 Spending Review main report: Stability, security and opportunity for all published on 12 July 2004 by HM Treasury.
Five Year Strategy for Children and Learners - published by Department for Education and Skills (DfES) on 8 July 2004, under which every school will be an independent, specialist school with new freedoms to run their own affairs, backed by the security of a three-year budget so that they can achieve the highest standards for every single pupil.
Research, from the Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC) programme One Europe or Several?, published on 22 September 2003, has important implications for policy makers engaged in social provision and labour market reform. It finds that government policies have been based on false assumptions about globalisation. Patterns of investment and trade have been Europeanised, not globalised. Real competition for trade and investment is within Europe, and not principally from the rest of the world.
A report from King's Fund, published on 16 September 2003 (Health in the news: risk, reporting and media influence: executive summary) 135kb, has implications for policy makers and the need to know what the media regards as 'News'. The report tests the premise that, by under reporting serious public health issues e.g. smoking and obesity, and focusing instead on 'scare' stories e.g. BSE/CJD, the media distort perceptions of health risks.
The Social Exclusion Unit published a report on 8 September (A better education for children in care) 569kb which outlines measures to improve prospects for children in care. Stability in care and support at school will involve better Personal Education Plans to support learning needs, with more books to help learning at home. The report was published at the same time as the Children's Green Paper (Every child matters) 995kb which is published by the Department for Education and Skills.
A report published on 4 September 2003 by the Demos think tank (Why baby boomers won't be pensioned off) 461kb examines the values and attitudes of the baby boomer generation ('The new old') and concludes that these may lead to more positive models of retirement.
European Governance: a white paper 178kb Commission of the European Communities, 2001.COM 2001 (428). This report proposes important changes to ensure that EU policy-making is more inclusive and cross-cutting and linked to long-term objectives.
The Public Service Agreements 2003-2006 set out clear measurable targets for improvements in the delivery of public service and cover all public bodies over the next 3 years.
The Service Delivery Agreements ( SDA's) explain how the high-level targets set out in the Public Service Agreements will be achieved. This page includes a link to the index of departmental SLAs.
HM Treasury launched on 14 April 2003 the Public Service Performance website which sets out performance against the high level Public Service Agreement (PSA) targets and allows the public to assess how the Government is delivering across all areas of government.
World Bank The International Development Goals set targets for reductions in poverty, improvements in health and education, and protection of the environment. The goals measure progress from 1990 and look to what can be accomplished by 2015.
The E-Policy principles: a policy makers guide to the Internet developed by the Office of the e-Envoy, are designed to make policy makers aware of the impact that local, national, European and other international policy decisions and legislative proposals have on e-commerce.
5 and 10 year Plans
The Countryside Agency published a report on 1 April 2003 which examines the future of the English countryside ('The state of the countryside 2020'). The report identifies the main drivers of change and key uncertainties and by developing scenarios for the future, it shows how current trends and future developments might impact on rural areas and communities over the next 20 years.
The report can be viewed on the Countryside Agency website.
Criminal Justice: the way ahead (TSO, 2001. Cm 5074). Key white paper announcing 10 year crime strategy for England and Wales.
The Government has announced a wide-ranging and long-term strategy for modernising and reforming the Criminal Justice System in the White Paper Justice for All (TSO, 2002. Cm 5563)
The Neighbourhood Strategy Unit published its national strategy plan in February 2001 A New Commitment to Neighbourhood Renewal: A National Strategy Action Plan. The Strategy sets out the Government's vision for narrowing the gap between deprived neighbourhoods and the rest of the country, so that within 10 to 20 years, no-one should be seriously disadvantaged by where they live.
The Department for Education and Skills (DfES) sets out its strategic priorities for the next five years provides an overview of the targets that have been set and explains how they will be met in Education and Skills: Delivering results: a strategy to 2006 published in July 2001.
The Department for Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) published on 12 December 2002 its Strategy for Sustainable Farming and Food. This sets out a strategic response to the report of the Policy Commission on the Future of Farming and Food
Transport 2010 published on 20 July 2000 sets out the Government's long-term strategy for the delivery of a better integrated, environmentally friendly, safer and more punctual transport system. It builds on the foundations of the Integrated Transport White Paper: A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone. TSO, 2000.
The NHS Plan: a plan for investment, a plan for reform published in July 2000 sets out a five year investment plan and modernisation programme for the National Health Service.
A forward looking approach is demonstrated by contingency or scenario planning.
Foresight The Foresight Programme brings together the voices of business, government, science and others to look at what might happen in the future and what we need to do now to secure long-term competitive advantage and enhanced quality of life for all.
Future Governance - closed January 2004, consisted of 30 research projects in the social sciences concerned with lesson drawing in public policy and policy transfer.
The Strategic Futures project was established by the Strategy Unit to improve the ability of Government to think about, react to and potentially shape the future.
The Henley Centre has developed tools which help government departments and public organisations to take account of social change in their policy making and to build models of the future by developing scenarios that help them understand the impact of change on its stakeholders
Sustainable Development
A better quality of life: a strategy for sustainable development for the UK. TSO, 1999. This outlines the UK strategy on sustainable development and brings the environment, social progress and the economy alongside each other at the heart of policy making. The Government's second report reviewing the progress towards sustainable development was published in March 2002.
The Public Management Committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have developed a checklist that provides guidance for policy makers in improving policy coherence and integration for the pursuit of the sustainable development goal.
'Forward looking policy takes a long-term view based on statistical trends and informed predictions of social, political, economic and cultural trends, for at least five years into the future of the likely effect and impact of the policy'.
Eurostat is a key website providing long-term projections of statistical data covering a range of social and economic indicators for EU countries.
The OECD International Futures Programme is designed to help decision makers to get a handle on the key factors affecting the long-term future. It provides monitoring of the long-term economic and social horizon, with early warning on emerging issues, more accurate pinpointing of major developments and possible trend breaks and greater analytical appreciation of long-term issues. Its main activities are:
The OECD Statistics Portal collects statistical information drawn from statistical agencies and other institutions of its Member countries. This data is used to analyse and project economic and social developments.
National School of Government offers a wide range of courses on various aspects of policy making