Policy Hub
On 23 April 2009, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) published a paper (Migration: a long-run perspective) which looks at how people come to and leave England and Wales over the course of their lifetimes (cohort measures).
The paper explains that annual net migration rates (the numbers arriving and leaving in a single year) are not a particularly useful measure of medium- or long-term migration trends.
Instead, it argues that levels of net lifetime migration to and from the UK in the last two centuries have largely been determined by UK fertility levels.
Official predictions point to historically high levels of net immigration to the UK in the coming decades. However, the paper cautions that, although UK fertility rates have declined in recent years and look set to remain low (tending to support official forecasts), the Office of National Statistics may be over-estimating the long-term impact of migration on population.
Such predictions assume the UK will remain an attractive place to live and work, relative to other countries. This assumption is clearly contestable in the present economic climate.